Ukrainan konflikti/sota

YLE:n juttua aseavun vaiheista. Punaisena lankana se, että edelleen puuttuu kokonaan se sodan voittava strategia. Apua annetaan tipottain että Ukraina ei romahtaisi. Avaimia sodan voittamiseen ei olla annettu.

yle.fi

Länsi on pelokas eikä tiedä, miten haluaisi sodan päättyvän â ja siksi Ukraina on nyt pahassa paikassa

Voimasuhteet Ukrainassa ovat muuttuneet radikaalisti vuodessa. Venäjä on niskan päällä. Yhdysvaltojen valtava tukipaketti auttaa Ukrainaa rintamalla, mutta ei ratkaise sotaa.
yle.fi yle.fi
 
Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The EconomistFour reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:

- The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.
- The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.
- The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
- The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

His conclusion is as follows:

- Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
- Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.
- Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.
- The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.
- After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779217033374089501
Linkki
 
tulikomento kirjoitti:
Verkkouutiset kertoo miten ryssä huijaa intialaisia työläisiä rintamalle.

www.verkkouutiset.fi

Venäjällä huijataan intialaisia rintamalle | Verkkouutiset

Intian poliisin mukaan töihin tulleita miehiä on pakkovärvätty sotaan.
www.verkkouutiset.fi www.verkkouutiset.fi


Intian poliisi ilmoitti viime kuussa, että kymmenet intialaiset ovat joutuneet vastoin tahtoaan Ukrainaan taistelemaan sen jälkeen, kun heille on ensin luvattu töitä Venäjällä sosiaalisen median kautta.

Intian ulkoministeriö on sanonut, että viranomaiset tekevät parhaansa saadakseen rintamalle huijatut miehet kotiin mahdollisimman pian.
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Hienosti ryssä ryssii tämänkin asian! Aika nopeasti venäläisten tällainen toimintamalli nousee poliittiseen keskusteluun ja se väistämättä heijastuu maiden poliittisiin suhteisiin. (Helppo uskoa, että tällaisen toiminnan taustalla olisi jokin paikallinen venäläinen mafia, joka hankkii tuloja ihmiskaupalla. Homma vaan helposti eskaloituu valtioiden väliseksi keskusteluksi.)
 
Colbyltä pitkä ketju uuden paketin sisällöstä. Lopputulema on että 23.6 miljardia dollaria tästä luvatusta ~61 miljardista dollarista on sotilaallista apua Ukrainalle. Tämä sisältää siis PDA eli suoraan varastosta otettavan (7.8 miljardia) ja toinen puoli 15.8 miljardia tosiaan uuden kaluston ostamiseen varattu.
edit. Kirjoittaja ihmettelee myös aikaisempia käyttämättömiä PDA ja USAI -rahoja (6.6 miljardia), jälkimmäisestä olisi voinut laittaa tilaukseen esim. niitä Patrioteja mutta näin ei ole tehty. Eli siellä on tuon verran rahaa, josta ei ole tehty sopimuksia ilmeisesti mihinkään.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1783481352383557740
https://twitter.com/x/status/1783481698174603443
 
Viimeksi muokattu:
Kriegforscher ennustaa kovia aikoja loppuvuodelle. Hän on ehkä jokin alempi upseeri tiedustelujoukoissa. Budanovi ennusti rankkaa jaksoa touko-kesäkuulle. Saa nähdä mitä ryssä yrittää.

The second part of this year will be the hardest since May 2022 I assume.

Russians are able to push at different directions (Donetsk oblast is a strategic goal for this year). And they do it.
I am sure that we will see new directions such as Northern Kharkiv.

RUAF right now have enough forces to move them from, for example, Kreminna to Avdiivka without loosing the advancing potentional.

New CAA, new AC, new divisions. They are creating more and more forces. They will reach success this year.

The situation is worse than it used to be during the battle for Avdiivka. Much worse. They concentrate a lot of forces in one place to be able to breakthrough. We just don’t have enough brigades to manoeuvre and react.

There is a hight possibility that RUAF will start a new offensive from Belgorod oblast. No, the goal is not to capture Kharkiv.

The point is to make us to decide what and where we must sacrifice. They may use ~40K personal for this advance. And that’s a lot.

So I ask you to help the armed forces of Ukraine. I am very thankful that the US support was approved cause we would be fucked. Wait extra 6-7 months till new election would be close to death for us. Will be easier.

Help the Armed forces of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1783487659844735259
 
Nick Kane kirjoitti:
Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The EconomistFour reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:

- The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.
- The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.
- The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
- The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

His conclusion is as follows:

- Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
- Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.
- Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.
- The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.
- After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779217033374089501
Linkki
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Oliko tämä sama kiinalainen tutkija, joka hetki sitten myös ennusti Venäjän häviötä? Näillä on suuri poliittinen painoarvo, vahingossa nämä eivät julkisuuteen Kiinassa pääse.
 
Ihan hyvä alustava katsaus tähän tapaukseen
This isn’t a blame game. If you want to ask questions, then ask the commander of Tactical Grouping of Troops Donetsk (responsible for an area between Velyka Novosilka and Horlivka), why he decided to deploy a single territorial defense battalion to defend such strategically valuable place, and why, on the right flank, were elements of a brigade that doesn’t have its own tank unit and fully-fledged artillery unit.


The command, seeing the Russian advance towards Ocheretyne, dispatched an element from 47th Mechanized Brigade (from left flank) and 115th Mechanized Brigade (from right flank) to stop the Russian advance. Neither counter-attack succeeded.

And while people on social media argue who is to blame and lynch 115th Mechanized Brigade all over the internet, the brigade has lost more than 20 soldiers (killed or missing) during the last few days and continues to defend the right flank.
militaryland.net

The failed defense of Ocheretyne settlement

The public lynch of 115th Mechanized Brigade is unjustified and unfair. Russian forces, in surprise to many, reached the edge of Ocheretyne on April 18 and entered it two days later. The settlement…
militaryland.net militaryland.net
 
ryssät on nostaneet sopimussotilaiden kertapalkkioita osalla alueista miljoonaan ruplaan ~ 10000 euroon. Roistovaltio alkaa olemaan mallissa, jossa kaikki ovat palkkasotilaita. Voinee tarkoittaa sitäkin, että vapaaehtoisia ei muulla tavalla tuonne saa.

Several regions in Russia have already raised one-time payments to the new servicemen who signed a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry to 1 million rubles. That's about £9,000 in hand.In the Krasnodar region, the payment increased from 300 thousand rubles to 1 million from the beginning of 2024 to now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1783465710196244632
 
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